MIXED CONSUMER SIGNALS AT MONTH’s END
Commerce Department data showed personal spending up only 0.1% for September. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell 5.0 points in October to a mark of 97.6; the University of Michigan’s index of household sentiment did rise 2.8 points on the month to a final October reading of 90.0.1
FEWER NEW HOMES SOLD IN SEPTEMBER
New home buying weakened 15.2% in that month according to the Census Bureau, and the yearly sales pace hit a 10-month low. Additionally, the National Association of Realtors reported a 2.3% decline in its pending home sales index for September. In better news, the 20-city S&P/Case-Shiller home price index ticked north slightly – existing home prices were up 4.7% in the 12 months ending in August.2
U.S. ECONOMY GREW 1.5% IN Q3
The federal government’s first estimate of Q3 GDP was disappointing after 3.9% Q2 growth. A 3.2% quarterly personal spending gain did not fully offset a major drop in business spending and the largest 3-month reduction in inventories since 2012.3
WALL STREET’S COMEBACK CONTINUES
All three major indices posted minor gains last week. The Nasdaq added 0.43% to reach 5,053.75 Friday, while the S&P 500 rose 0.20% to close the week at 2,079.36. The Dow advanced 0.10% to a month-end settlement of 17,663.54.4
THIS WEEK: October’s ISM factory PMI appears Monday, plus earnings from Allstate, AMC Entertainment, Aramark, Clorox, Health Net, Loews, Noble Energy, Omega Healthcare, Sysco, and Visa. Tuesday brings a September factory orders report and results from Activision Blizzard, Archer Daniels Midland, Sprint, Tesla, Groupon, Herbalife, Hyatt Hotels, Kellogg, Mosaic, Office Depot, Papa John’s, Sempra Energy, Martin Marietta, Vulcan Materials, and Zynga. October’s ADP job change report and ISM services index surface on Wednesday, plus earnings from Allergan, Avon, Blackrock Capital, Etsy, FTD, Facebook, Marathon Oil, MetLife, Michael Kors, Motorola Solutions, Prudential, Qualcomm, Revlon, Rosetta Stone, Time Warner, Transocean, Wendy’s, and Whole Foods. Thursday, new initial claims and Challenger job-cut reports arrive plus results from AMC Networks, Con Edison, DreamWorks, Duke Energy, iHeartMedia, Kemper, Kraft Heinz, Molson Coors, Marcus & Millichap, Monster Beverage, News Corp., Ralph Lauren, Red Lion Hotels, Nvidia, Shake Shack, Take Two Interactive, Tribune Publishing, Walt Disney Co., Symantec, and Wingstop. The Labor Department’s October jobs report comes out Friday, plus earnings from Cigna, E.W. Scripps Co., Humana, and LoJack.
% CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG
DJIA -0.90 +2.72 +11.77 +6.92
NASDAQ +6.71 +10.68 +20.31 +13.84
S&P 500 +0.99 +4.25 +15.15 +7.23
REAL YIELD 10/30 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS 0.63% 0.42% 0.50% 2.00%
Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 10/30/155,6,7,8
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
WEEKLY QUOTE
“We cannot change anything unless we accept it.”
– Carl Jung
WEEKLY TIP
To figure out how much liquidity you have (i.e., how large your emergency fund is), divide your liquid assets by your monthly expenses. Hopefully, the number that results is 3 or greater.
WEEKLY RIDDLE
What 5-letter word for a type of crop can you remove 2 letters from, then rearrange the 3 letters left to make the word “tea?”
Last week’s riddle:
Robert will paint unit numbers on 100 storage units today. In the course of painting a number from 1 to 100 on the door of each unit, how many times will he have to paint the numeral 3 today?
Last week’s answer:
20 times. (3, 13, 23, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 43, 53, 63, 73, 83, 93.)
Citations.
1 – marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendars/economic [10/30/15]
2 – thefiscaltimes.com/2015/10/29/US-Housing-Gets-Hit-Double-Whammy [10/29/15]
3 – marketwatch.com/story/third-quarter-gdp-lands-with-thud-just-15-growth-2015-10-29 [10/29/15]
4 – markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/usmarkets/usmarkets.asp [10/30/15]
5 – markets.wsj.com/us [10/30/15]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F30%2F14&x=0&y=0 [10/30/15]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F30%2F14&x=0&y=0 [10/30/15]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F30%2F14&x=0&y=0 [10/30/15]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F29%2F10&x=0&y=0 [10/30/15]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F29%2F10&x=0&y=0 [10/30/15]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F29%2F10&x=0&y=0 [10/30/15]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F31%2F05&x=0&y=0 [10/30/15]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F31%2F05&x=0&y=0 [10/30/15]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F31%2F05&x=0&y=0 [10/30/15]
7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [10/30/15]
8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [10/30/15]
This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., for Mark Lund, Mark is known as The 401k Advisor, Investor Coach, The Financial Advisor, The Financial Planner and author of The Effective Investor. Mark offers investment advisory services through Stonecreek Wealth Advisors, Inc. an independent, fee-only, Registered Investment Advisor firm providing 401k consulting for small businesses and financial Advisor services for professional athletes and individuals. Stonecreek is located in Salt Lake City, Murray City, West Jordan City, Sandy City, Draper City, South Jordan City, Provo City, Orem City, Lehi City, Highland City, Alpine City, and American Fork City in Utah.
