CONFIDENCE INDEX FALLS, SENTIMENT INDEX RISES
Two respected barometers of consumer mood went different ways in November. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index came in at a disappointing 70.4, down from a revised 72.4 mark for October and well below the 74.0 reading forecast by Briefing.com. November’s final consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan rose to 75.1, topping the Briefing.com projection by 1.6 points.1
HOUSING INDICATORS LARGELY IMPRESS
September’s edition of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index found house prices rising 3.2% for the third quarter, 13.3% YTD and 11.2% across the past 12 months. Building permits rose 6.2% in October, with the Census Bureau measuring a 13.9% annual gain. Pending home sales declined for another month: they fell 0.6% for October, the National Association of Realtors noted.1,2
DURABLE GOODS ORDERS DECLINE
Overall hard goods orders slipped 2.0% in October, partly reversing the 4.1% increase in September. The silver lining? The Census Bureau found that October’s retreat was just 0.1% with transportation orders removed.1
NOVEMBER ENDS WITH FURTHER STOCK GAINS
The NASDAQ was the frontrunner among the big three U.S. indices last week, rising 1.71% to 4,059.89. Both the S&P 500 (+0.06% to 1,805.81) and Dow (+0.13% to 16,086.41) realized tiny gains during the abbreviated trading week. Turning to the NYMEX, oil and gold both had poor Novembers: on the month, gold slid 5.46% to $1,250.60 an ounce and light crude dropped 3.60% to $92.72 a barrel.3,4,5,6
THIS WEEK: Monday, ISM releases its November manufacturing PMI and the Census Bureau provides September and October construction spending data. Tuesday, the Commerce Department releases figures on November auto sales. On Wednesday, ISM puts out its November service sector PMI, the Federal Reserve offers a new Beige Book, the Census Bureau issues long-awaited September and October new home sales figures, and ADP produces its November job change report. The federal government releases its second estimate of Q3 GDP Thursday; also on tap for that day are the November Challenger job cuts report, data on October factory orders, and the latest initial jobless claims numbers. Friday, the Labor Department issues the November employment report, the Commerce Department publishes data on October consumer spending, and December’s preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index arrives.
% CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG
DJIA +22.76 +23.53 +16.44 +6.44
NASDAQ +34.46 +34.79 +32.88 +10.71
S&P 500 +26.62 +27.53 +20.30 +7.06
REAL YIELD 11/29 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS 0.60% -0.78% 2.60% 2.03%
Sources: CNNMoney.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 11/29/133,4,5,7,8,9
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.
These returns do not include dividends.
WEEKLY QUOTE
“I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life, and that is why I succeed.”
– Michael Jordan
WEEKLY TIP
If your business is past its inception stage, it isn’t too early to think about an exit strategy. You want to tackle this task at least a few years before the business is sold or transferred.
WEEKLY RIDDLE
A palindrome is any word, phrase, or number that reads the same either forward or backward. Can you think of a palindrome word that, when spelled in all capitals, looks the same backwards, forwards, or upside down?
Last week’s riddle:
I’m not alive, yet I grow. I need air, yet I have no lungs. I lack a mouth, yet water will calm me down. What am I?
Last week’s answer:
Fire.
Citations.
1 – briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2013/11/25-29 [11/27/13]
2 – dailyfinance.com/2013/11/26/case-shillers-housing-index-and-octobers-housing-s/ [11/26/13]
3 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/ [11/29/13]
4 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/nasdaq/ [11/29/13]
5 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/sandp/ [11/29/13]
6 – money.cnn.com/data/commodities/ [11/29/13]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F29%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/28/13]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F29%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/28/13]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F29%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/28/13]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F28%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/28/13]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F28%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/28/13]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F28%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/28/13]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F28%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/28/13]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F28%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/28/13]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F28%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/28/13]
8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [11/29/13]
9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [11/28/13]
This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., for Mark Lund an independent fee-only Investment Advisor, Investor Coach and the author of The Effective Investor. Located in Salt Lake City and Provo Utah.
