TAME INFLATION PERSISTS
Can the Federal Reserve justify another interest rate hike in the second half of 2017? Given weak inflation pressure, maybe not. The central bank has set a 2% yearly inflation target, but the Consumer Price Index rose only 0.1% in July, resulting in a 1.7% year-over-year gain. Core consumer prices rose 0.1% for a fourth consecutive month in July, so annualized core inflation was also at 1.7%. The Producer Price Index fell 0.1% last month; analysts polled by Briefing.com expected a 0.2% rise.1,2
ANALYSIS: EARNINGS GROW AT a 10% PACE
More than 90% of companies in the S&P 500 have now reported second-quarter results. FactSet, the respected financial analytics firm, now projects a blended earnings growth rate of 10.2% for the S&P 500 for the second quarter, along a with 5.1% blended sales growth rate. S&P component firms generating less than 50% of their sales outside the U.S., however, are set to record 14.0% blended earnings growth and 6.0% blended revenue growth.3
THE PRICE OF GOLD RISES
At Friday’s close, the yellow metal hit a 2-month high of $1,294.00 on the COMEX as investors looked away from equities. Gold gained 2.3% on the week.4
TURBULENCE FOR WALL STREET
Diplomatic tensions sent stocks lower last week. Across August 7-11, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.06% to 21,858.32; the S&P 500, 1.43% to 2,441.32; the Nasdaq Composite, 1.50% to 6,256.56. Volatility certainly came back: the CBOE VIX jumped 53.44% to end the week at 15.39.5
THIS WEEK: On Monday, Cumulus Media and Sysco report quarterly results. Tuesday brings July retail sales numbers and earnings from Advance Auto Parts, Agilent, Coach, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Home Depot, TJX, and Urban Outfitters. On Wednesday, minutes from the July Federal Reserve policy meeting appear; Wall Street will also interpret a report on July housing starts and building permits and earnings news from Cisco, L Brands, NetApp, Stein Mart, and Target. Fresh reports on initial jobless claims and industrial production roll in Thursday, complemented by earnings from Alibaba Group, America’s Car-Mart, Applied Materials, Bon-Ton Stores, Gap, Ross Stores, Sportsman’s Warehouse, Stage Stores, and Walmart. Friday, investors consider earnings from Deere & Co. and Estee Lauder and the preliminary August consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan.
% CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG
DJIA +10.60 +17.43 +13.10 +6.51
NASDAQ +16.23 +19.66 +21.42 +14.58
S&P 500 +9.04 +11.69 +14.73 +6.79
REAL YIELD 8/11 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS 0.40% 0.10% -0.60% 2.56%
Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 8/11/175,6,7,8
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
WEEKLY QUOTE
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful what we pretend to be.”
– Kurt Vonnegut, Jr.
WEEKLY TIP
The investment markets experience cycles, and the major indices inevitably see downturns at some point. If you are focused on long-term performance, the good news is that the markets have the potential to rebound in reasonable time. If your portfolio is diversified, that may provide you with some insulation in a correction.
WEEKLY RIDDLE
Shake me, and I’ll do what you want, but first you must extract me from the earth. I may be on the tip of your tongue and over your shoulder. What am I?
Last week’s riddle:
What is the only type of “worm” that will never risk ending up on a hook?
Last week’s answer:
A bookworm.
Citations.
1 – reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-inflation-idUSKBN1AR19S [8/11/17]
2 – briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2017/08/07-11 [8/11/17]
3 – insight.factset.com/sp-500-companies-with-more-global-exposure-reported-higher-earnings-growth-in-q2 [8/11/17]
4 – marketwatch.com/story/gold-marks-highest-finish-since-early-june-up-more-than-2-for-the-week-2017-08-11 [8/11/17]
5 – markets.wsj.com/us [8/11/17]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=8%2F11%2F16&x=0&y=0 [8/11/17]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=8%2F11%2F16&x=0&y=0 [8/11/17]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=8%2F11%2F16&x=0&y=0 [8/11/17]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=8%2F10%2F12&x=0&y=0 [8/11/17]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=8%2F10%2F12&x=0&y=0 [8/11/17]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=8%2F10%2F12&x=0&y=0 [8/11/17]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=8%2F10%2F07&x=0&y=0 [8/11/17]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=8%2F10%2F07&x=0&y=0 [8/11/17]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=8%2F10%2F07&x=0&y=0 [8/11/17]
7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [8/11/17]
8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [8/11/17]
This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., for Mark Lund, Mark is known as a Wealth Advisor, The 401k Advisor, Investor Coach, The Financial Advisor, The Financial Planner and author of The Effective Investor. Mark offers investment advisory services through Stonecreek Wealth Advisors, Inc. an independent, fee-only, Registered Investment Advisor firm providing investment and retirement planning for individuals and 401k consulting for small businesses. Stonecreek is located in Salt Lake City, Murray City, West Jordan City, Sandy City, Draper City, South Jordan City, Provo City, Orem City, Lehi City, Highland City, Alpine City, and American Fork City in Utah.
