The Mark Lund Growth Report

RETAIL SALES DECREASE AGAIN Recently, economists have worried about a decline in household spending. The 0.8% fall for retail sales in January affirmed their anxieties. Consumers have certainly been buying less fuel, but even with gas purchases removed, there was still an 0.2% retreat. Headline retail sales have now sunk for consecutive months; earlier Commerce […]

EMPLOYERS ADD 257,000 JOBS IN JANUARY That beat the 230,000 hires forecast in a MarketWatch consensus of analysts. Yes, the headline jobless rate actually rose 0.1% to 5.7% last month, and the total unemployment rate (U-6) rose for the first time in six months to 11.3% – but average hourly wages were up 0.5%, a

FOURTH QUARTER SAW 2.6% GROWTH Given the final 5.0% GDP reading for Q3, this initial Commerce Department estimate displeased many investors – even though the personal spending rate rose an impressive 4.3% in Q4. Investors also disliked the 3.4% overall dip in hard goods orders for December, which followed a 2.1% descent in November.1,2 HOUSEHOLDS

A RISE IN HOME BUYING Existing home sales were up 2.4% in December and 3.5% for 2014. In its latest report, the National Association of Realtors noted a median sale price of $208,500, 5.8% above a year before. The sales pace in the last half of 2014 was 8% better than in the first half,

WHAT HAPPENED TO RETAIL SALES? Wall Street was surprised by the news of December’s 0.9% retreat, especially given November’s (revised) 0.4% advance. Minus auto buying, the decline was 1.0%. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast a gain of 0.1%. The plunge came even with holiday sales, cheap gas, strong hiring and increasing optimism about household

ANOTHER GOOD JOBS REPORT America’s best year for hiring since 2000 wrapped up with 252,000 more people finding work in December. Labor Department data showed the jobless rate declining to 5.6% last month (the U-6 rate tracking the unemployed and underemployed decreased to 11.2%). The economy added 2.53 million non-farm payroll jobs in 2014, representing

LATEST ISM FACTORY PMI IS A LETDOWN The 3.2-point December descent of the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index may not be as troubling as it first appeared to Wall Street. Purchasing managers surveyed by ISM noted that labor disputes at west coast ports held up raw material and hard goods shipments last month. At

AMERICANS BUY MORE, SENTIMENT INDEX SOARS Commerce Department data showed retail sales jumping 0.7% for November – the best monthly advance recorded in a year. More good news came from the University of Michigan – its initial December consumer sentiment index came in at 93.8, way up from 88.8 at the end of last month.

ECONOMY ADDS 321,000 JOBS November 2014 was the best month for hiring since January 2012. Analysts polled by MarketWatch had projected payrolls expanding by 235,000 jobs last month, and that forecast was trumped. While seasonal jobs constituted 50,000 of the new positions, professional and business hires comprised 86,000 more. The Labor Department also found average

CAUTIOUS SPENDING, BUT IMPRESSIVE GROWTH Personal income and personal spending both rose 0.2% in October, according to the Commerce Department. Not too impressive? Maybe, but the federal government’s second estimate of Q3 GDP was. Pair the newly revised 3.9% reading with the final 4.6% mark for Q2, and you get the best 6 months for