The Mark Lund Growth Report

UNREST IN IRAQ SENDS OIL TOWARD $107 NYMEX crude settled at $106.91 Friday, up 4.1% for the week in reaction to the Sunni-led ISIS militant movement seizing control of Mosul and other cities in northern and eastern Iraq. It was oil’s biggest weekly spike since December. While the price of unleaded gasoline fell a cent […]

HIRING CORRESPONDS TO EXPECTATIONS Employers added 217,000 new jobs in May, just 1,000 less than analysts polled by Reuters had forecast. Over the past year, payrolls have expanded by average of 197,000 new hires a month. The jobless rate remained at 6.3% in May, but the U-6 rate (the unemployed + the underemployed) sank to

HOW OPTIMISTIC ARE CONSUMERS? No firm conclusion can be drawn from May’s major consumer economic polls. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose 1.3 points to 83.0. That was its second-best reading in the past six years. The University of Michigan’s final May consumer sentiment index dipped to 81.9 from April’s reading of 84.1. Fresh

HOME SALES PICK UP AGAIN Economists, investors and homeowners welcomed the news that existing home sales improved 1.3% for April. Complementing that announcement from the National Association of Realtors, the Census Bureau said new home sales rose 6.4% in April. In annualized terms, the sales pace has flagged: new home sales have slowed 4.2% over

IS THE PRODUCER PRICE INDEX SENDING A MESSAGE? Wholesale prices climbed 0.6% in April according to Labor Department data. That tripled the increase projected by economists polled by MarketWatch, and it took the annual advance in the PPI to 2.1%, a two-year peak. The PPI also pushed north 0.5% in March, so higher consumer prices

ISM: SERVICE SECTOR VERY HEALTHY At 55.2, the Institute for Supply Management’s April non-manufacturing PMI climbed 2.1 points above the March reading. The nation’s service sector expanded for a 51st straight month, and the survey saw big monthly leaps in its new orders index (up 4.8 points to 58.2) and its business activity index (which

HIRING & MANUFACTURING PICK UP America’s economy created 288,000 new jobs in April, the most in any month since January 2012. Labor Department data showed the jobless rate falling dramatically to 6.3%, largely due to more people abandoning the job hunt. Still, the U-6 rate (unemployment + underemployment) was at 12.3% in April, a 4½-year

CONSUMER OPTIMISM INCREASES At a final April mark of 84.1, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index hit a 9-month high. It climbed 4.1 points above the final March reading. The survey’s sub-index of current economic conditions came in at a 7-year high of 98.7.1 HOME SALES TAIL OFF While the National Association of Realtors

CONSUMER PRICES ADVANCE 0.2% In reviewing March’s mild increase in household inflation, two statistics stand out. The Consumer Price Index measured a 2.7% year-over-year rise in shelter costs (the largest annual gain in six years). Americans also paid 0.4% for food last month. Annualized consumer inflation reached 1.5% in March, up from 1.1% for February.1

HOUSEHOLD SENTIMENT REACHES 9-MONTH PEAK The University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment rose 2.6 points in its preliminary April reading, bouncing back from a 4-month low of 80.0 at the end of March to a high unseen since last July. From 2003-07, the index averaged a reading of 89.0; during the 2007-09 recession, its