Growth Report for Monday, March 17, 2014

RETAIL SALES UP 0.3% IN FEBRUARY
Weather didn’t stop Americans from shopping last month. February’s headline gain in retail sales was the first in three months and represented a nice turnaround from the (revised) 0.6% drop measured by the Commerce Department for January. Minus car and truck buying, the February increase was still 0.3%. Sales at clothing and furniture retailers led the way, both improving 0.4% on the month.1

SENTIMENT COOLS AS WEATHER WARMS
The preliminary March reading for the University of Michigan’s monthly consumer sentiment index was just 79.9, a 4-month low. February’s final mark was 81.6, and analysts polled by MarketWatch forecast an initial March reading of 80.8.2,3

PRODUCER PRICES RETREAT, AGAINST EXPECTATIONS
After rising 0.2% for January, the Producer Price Index ticked down 0.1% in February; in a Bloomberg survey, economists projected a 0.2% increase. The core PPI (minus food and energy prices) dropped 0.2% last month. Over the past year, the headline PPI has risen just 0.9%.2,3

OVERSEAS HEADLINES HAMPER STOCKS
Would Crimeans vote to leave Ukraine and join Russia on March 16? To what degree was China’s economy cooling off? These questions preoccupied Wall Street last week, and the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all turned south. The 5-day performances: S&P, -1.97% to 1,841.13; Dow, -2.35% to 16,065.67; Nasdaq, -2.10% to 4,245.40.4,5

THIS WEEK: Monday morning, Wall Street will react to the outcome of the Crimean referendum; the March NAHB housing market index and the Federal Reserve’s report on February industrial output also arrive. Tuesday, investors will consider February’s CPI, data on February housing starts and building permits, and earnings from Oracle, Perry Ellis, Adobe and Hertz. Wednesday brings a Federal Reserve policy announcement (and the potential for further tapering of QE3); Guess, KB Home, FedEx and General Mills announce quarterly results. On Thursday, NAR issues February existing home sales figures, the Conference Board puts out its February leading indicator index, a new round of initial jobless claims data arrives, and Nike, ConAgra and Lennar present earnings. No major economic releases are scheduled for Friday.

% CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG
DJIA -3.08 +10.50 +24.48 +5.90
NASDAQ +1.65 +30.27 +39.31 +11.89
S&P 500 -0.39 +17.78 +28.67 +6.67
REAL YIELD 3/14 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS 0.49% -0.53% 1.87% 1.47%

Sources: USATODAY.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 3/14/145,6,7,8
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.
These returns do not include dividends.

WEEKLY QUOTE

“Every day brings a chance for you to draw in a breath, kick off your shoes, and dance.”

– Oprah Winfrey

WEEKLY TIP

Making a donation to a charity can give you an immediate tax deduction for the amount of the donation and help you avoid capital gains tax if they are derived from certain assets. Consider this move if you like to itemize deductions and you are in a higher tax bracket.

WEEKLY RIDDLE

What binds two people together yet touches only one person at a time?

Last week’s riddle:
Lidia immediately went bankrupt after the car she was pushing around stopped in front of a hotel. It sounds sad, but she wasn’t upset. What was she doing?

Last week’s answer:
She was playing Monopoly.

Citations.
1 – reuters.com/article/2014/03/13/us-retail-sales-idUSBREA2C0YK20140313 [3/13/14]
2 – marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendars/economic [3/14/14]
3 – bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-14/wholesale-prices-in-u-s-unexpectedly-drop-on-cheaper-services.html [3/14/14]
4 – reuters.com/article/2014/03/14/markets-usa-stocks-idUSL2N0MB1ON20140314 [3/14/14]
5 – usatoday.com/money/markets/overview/ [3/14/14]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F14%2F13&x=0&y=0 [3/14/14]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F14%2F13&x=0&y=0 [3/14/14]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F14%2F13&x=0&y=0 [3/14/14]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F13%2F09&x=0&y=0 [3/14/14]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F13%2F09&x=0&y=0 [3/14/14]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F13%2F09&x=0&y=0 [3/14/14]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F15%2F04&x=0&y=0 [3/14/14]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F15%2F04&x=0&y=0 [3/14/14]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F15%2F04&x=0&y=0 [3/14/14]
7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [3/14/14]
8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [3/14/14]

This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., for Mark Lund, The 401k Advisor, Investor Coach and author of The Effective Investor. Mark offers investment advisory services through Stonecreek Wealth Advisors, Inc. an independent, fee-only, Registered Investment Advisor firm providing 401k consulting for small businesses and private investment management services for select individuals. Stonecreek is located in Salt Lake City and Provo Utah.

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