Growth Report for Monday, July 22, 2013

CONSUMER PRICES RISE 0.5% FOR JUNE

Gas prices soared 6.3% last month, and they contributed greatly to the jump in the Consumer Price Index. Core inflation (minus food and energy prices) increased just 0.2% in June. As the headline CPI advanced only once during March-May, does this signal mounting inflation pressures? Maybe not. Looking deeper into the CPI, annualized core inflation actually decreased last month to 1.6%. That is the smallest yearly rise for that indicator in two years.1

CAR BUYING DRIVES RETAIL SALES INCREASE

The Commerce Department noted a 0.4% gain in U.S. retail purchases in June, following a 0.5% rise in May. Auto and truck sales were up 1.8% last month (in the last 12 months, the gain has been 11.4%). While vehicle sales improved, consumers bought less in other retail categories. That left the core retail sales advance at 0.2% for June – the weakest number since January.2

LEADING INDICATORS FLAT IN JUNE

The Conference Board’s leading economic index showed no advance last month; it was up 0.2% in May and 0.8% in April. The good news is that in the past six months, the LEI has advanced to 95.3, approaching the 100 mark it started at in 2004.3       

S&P 500 NOTCHES 4-WEEK WINNING STREAK

A 0.71% weekly advance took the broad benchmark to 1,692.09 at the closing bell Friday – it had never settled higher. While the NASDAQ pulled back 0.35% last week to 3,587.61, the Dow wrapped up the week at a fresh high of 15,543.74 after a 0.51% gain across five trading days. The CBOE VIX settled at just 12.56 Friday.4

THIS WEEK: NAR presents its June existing home sales report Monday and Texas Instruments, McDonald’s, Halliburton, Hasbro, Kimberly-Clark and Netflix will all report earnings. On Tuesday, earnings from Broadcom, Discover Financial, Apple, Altria, DuPont, Travelers, United Tech, UPS, AT&T and Electronic Arts complement the latest FHFA home price index. Quarterly results from Caterpillar, Visa, Qualcomm, GlaxoSmithKline, Boeing, Eli Lilly, Ford, PepsiCo, Facebook, Akamai and Baidu appear Wednesday, along with Census Bureau data on June new home sales. Thursday brings new initial claims figures, durable goods orders data for June and earnings from Credit Suisse, Colgate-Palmolive, Starbucks, Bristol-Myers, GM, 3M, Sirius XM, Amazon.com, Gilead Sciences and Zynga. On Friday, Tyco presents Q2 results and the final July consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan appears.

% CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG

DJIA +18.62 +20.09 +7.04 +6.92

NASDAQ +18.81 +20.96 +11.43 +11.00

S&P 500 +18.64 +22.93 +6.84 +7.03

REAL YIELD 7/19 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS 0.29% -0.62% 1.65% 2.04%

Sources: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 7/19/134,5,6,7 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.

 

WEEKLY QUOTE

“In the successful organization, no detail is too small to escape close attention.”

– Lou Holtz

WEEKLY TIP

Ongoing expenses are common in life – mortgage payments, monthly bills and so forth. View your retirement savings effort in the same way – a monthly expense you must make, one designed to pay off for you.

WEEKLY RIDDLE

Wide as a grapefruit, deep as a cup, but even a river can’t fill it up – What is it?

Last week’s riddle:

All around yet can’t be seen, has no throat but can be heard. What is it?

Last week’s answer:

The wind.

 

Citations.
1 – forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2013/07/16/spiking-gasoline-prices-push-cpi-inflation-higher-but-weak-core-fuels-taper-uncertainty/ [7/16/13]
2 – usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/07/15/retail-sales-rise-in-june-on-autos/2517443/ [7/15/13]
3 – conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1 [7/18/13]
4 – cnbc.com/id/100899240 [7/19/13]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F19%2F12&x=0&y=0 [7/19/13]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F19%2F12&x=0&y=0 [7/19/13]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F19%2F12&x=0&y=0 [7/19/13]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F18%2F08&x=0&y=0 [7/19/13]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F18%2F08&x=0&y=0 [7/19/13]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F18%2F08&x=0&y=0 [7/19/13]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F18%2F03&x=0&y=0 [7/19/13]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F18%2F03&x=0&y=0 [7/19/13]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F18%2F03&x=0&y=0 [7/19/13]
6 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [7/19/13]
7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [7/19/13]

This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., for Mark Lund an independent fee-only Investment Advisor, Investor Coach and the author of The Effective Investor. Located in Salt Lake City and Provo Utah.

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