The Mark Lund Growth Report

WHY DID CONSUMER SPENDING DECLINE IN JULY? Last month’s 0.1% dip surprised analysts. In inflation-adjusted terms, the Commerce Department measured the pullback at 0.2%. Household confidence, though, continues to increase. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index finished August at 82.5, up from 81.8 at the end of July and refuting the Wall Street Journal […]

A GAIN IN EXISTING HOME SALES In its July report, the National Association of Realtors recorded a 2.4% monthly increase in existing home sales. The good news from July took the annualized sales pace up to 5.15 million. According to the Census Bureau, July also saw a 15.7% leap in housing starts and an 8.1%

RETAIL SALES COOL OFF IN JULY They were flat according to the Commerce Department, with core retail sales (excluding food, car, gasoline and home improvement purchases) up just 0.1%. Economists polled by Reuters believed overall retail sales would advance 0.2% last month. Is this a signal that Q3 growth won’t come near Q2 growth? It

U.S. SERVICE SECTOR IS BOOMING The Institute for Supply Management’s July non-manufacturing PMI came in at a stellar 58.7, indicating rapid expansion. It hadn’t been that high since December 2005, and its new orders sub-index reached a peak unseen since August 2005. On Wall Street, some investors worried that the Federal Reserve would take the

SUSTAINED HIRING, RENEWED CONFIDENCE In July, 209,000 Americans found new jobs. Hiring topped 200,000 for a sixth straight month, which hasn’t happened in 17 years according to Labor Department data. The jobless rate ticked up to 6.2% and the underemployment (U-6) rate inched up to 12.2%, but that signaled more jobseekers. June also saw a

YEARLY INFLATION AT 2.1% In June, the headline Consumer Price Index recorded annualized inflation at that level for a second consecutive month. Back in February, yearly consumer inflation was down at 1.1%. June saw the CPI rise 0.3% and the core CPI (minus food and energy prices) advance 0.1%; core CPI was up 1.9% year-over-year.1

STOCKS ADVANCE, EVEN WITH ANXIETIES The crash of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in Ukraine, a ground offensive by Israel into Gaza: these headlines gave investors pause, but M&A action and earnings reports sent stocks higher for the week. Thursday, the CBOE VIX jumped 32% to settle at 14.54, yet the S&P 500 closed just 1.2%

FED PLANS TO STOP EASING THIS FALL June’s Federal Reserve policy meeting minutes outlined the central bank’s exit plan from QE3. The Fed will continue tapering its monthly asset purchases in a series of $10 billion cuts, then make a last $15 billion cut in late October. The June minutes offered no hint of change

DOW TOPS 17,000 AFTER TERRIFIC JOBS REPORT America’s jobless rate is fast approaching the Federal Reserve’s 6% target. Thanks to employers adding 288,000 new hires, unemployment dropped 0.2% to 6.1% in June. The U-6 rate (unemployed + underemployed) declined to 12.1%, a low unseen since October 2008; from June 2013 to June 2014, the number

A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE ECONOMY The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose 3.0 points for June to 85.2, exceeding the 84.0 consensus forecast of analysts polled by Briefing.com. Those analysts thought the University of Michigan’s final June consumer sentiment index would come in at 81.7; it climbed to 82.5 instead. In related news,