Oct

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Growth Report – Monday, October 2, 2017

PERSONAL SPENDING BARELY IMPROVES
Consumer spending increased by only a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in August, while consumer incomes rose 0.2%. Those gains precisely matched the projections of economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal. Factoring in inflation, household spending actually retreated 0.1% during August. Hurricane Harvey may be partly to blame for these numbers.1

ROUNDING UP REAL ESTATE INDICATORS
Census Bureau data shows new home buying down 3.4% in August; this dip comes on the heels of a (revised) 5.5% fall in July. Pending home sales, as measured by a National Association of Realtors index, slipped 2.6% in August after retreating 0.8% a month earlier. The 12-month gain for the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index improved 0.2% to 5.8% in the July edition (released last week).2

CONSUMER OUTLOOK WEATHERS STORMS
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index both declined for September, but not drastically. The university’s gauge fell 1.7 points to a reading of 95.1, right where analysts polled by MarketWatch thought it would land; that left it 4.3 points above where it was in September 2016. At a mark of 119.8, the CB index was just 0.6 points lower than its August reading.2,3

WALL STREET WRAPS UP A GOOD WEEK & MONTH
The three major indices all advanced last week. Taking the lead, the Nasdaq Composite posted a 5-day gain of 1.07% on the way to a Friday close of 6,495.96. In the same period, the Dow Jones Industrial Average improved 0.25% to 22,405.09; the S&P 500, 0.68% to 2,519.36. At the close on September 29, the Nasdaq had added 0.94% month-over-month; the Dow, 1.90%; the S&P, 1.73%; the Russell 2000, an impressive 5.47%. The CBOE VIX ended the month at just 9.51.4

THIS WEEK: Monday sees the release of ISM’s September manufacturing PMI. Tuesday, Lennar and Paychex announce quarterly earnings. ISM’s September service sector PMI and ADP’s latest payrolls snapshot arrive Wednesday, plus Q3 earnings from Monsanto and PepsiCo; in addition, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen will speak briefly at the St. Louis Fed’s community banking conference. Thursday offers new initial claims numbers, the September Challenger job-cut report, and Q3 results from Constellation Brands and Costco. On Friday, the Department of Labor issues its September jobs report.

% CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG
DJIA +13.37 +23.49 +13.35 +6.12
NASDAQ +20.67 +23.28 +21.69 +14.05
S&P 500 +12.53 +17.12 +14.97 +6.50
REAL YIELD 9/29 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS 0.49% 0.02% -0.77% 2.27%

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 9/29/174,5,6,7
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

WEEKLY QUOTE

“A man’s silence is wonderful to listen to.”

– Thomas Hardy

WEEKLY TIP

When a grandparent, relative or friend of the family pays for a child’s medical expenses that are not covered by insurance, direct payments to doctors for such costs are not considered gifts to the child and do not count against the annual gift tax exclusion amount (currently $14,000).

WEEKLY RIDDLE

Michael is asked to use only the numeral 4, four times, to make an equation that equals 17. How does he do it?

Last week’s riddle:
A 6-foot chain is suspended with its ends nailed to a wall, with the nails parallel to the floor. The chain sags and hangs down between the nails; the height of the hanging chain is therefore 3 feet from top to bottom. What is the distance in between the nails?

Last week’s answer:
No distance at all, they are next to each other.

Citations.
1 – foxbusiness.com/features/2017/09/29/u-s-consumer-spending-soft-in-august.html [9/29/17]
2 – investing.com/economic-calendar/ [9/29/17]
3 – marketwatch.com/story/consumer-sentiment-eases-but-stays-strong-in-the-face-of-hurricanes-and-politics-2017-09-29 [9/29/17]
4 – markets.wsj.com/us [9/29/17]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F29%2F16&x=0&y=0 [9/29/17]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F29%2F16&x=0&y=0 [9/29/17]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F29%2F16&x=0&y=0 [9/29/17]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F28%2F12&x=0&y=0 [9/29/17]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F28%2F12&x=0&y=0 [9/29/17]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F28%2F12&x=0&y=0 [9/29/17]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F28%2F07&x=0&y=0 [9/29/17]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F28%2F07&x=0&y=0 [9/29/17]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F28%2F07&x=0&y=0 [9/29/17]
6 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [9/29/17]
7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [9/29/17]

This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., for Mark Lund, Mark is known as a Wealth Advisor, The 401k Advisor, Investor Coach, The Financial Advisor, The Financial Planner and author of The Effective Investor. Mark offers investment advisory services through Stonecreek Wealth Advisors, Inc. an independent, fee-only, Registered Investment Advisor firm providing investment and retirement planning for individuals and 401k consulting for small businesses. Stonecreek is located in Salt Lake City, Murray City, West Jordan City, Sandy City, Draper City, South Jordan City, Provo City, Orem City, Lehi City, Highland City, Alpine City, and American Fork City in Utah.

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Category: Blog, Economic Updates

About the Author ()

Mark K. Lund is the Chief Advisor, CEO, and author of The Effective Investor. He has written articles for or been quoted in: The Wall Street Journal, The Salt Lake Tribune, The Enterprise Newspaper, The Utah Business Connect Magazine, and Newsmax.com, just to name a few.  Mark publishes two newsletters called, “The Mark Lund Growth Report" and "Mark Lund on Money.”  Mark regularly provides CE (continuing education) courses for CPA’s. You may also have seen him on KUTV channel 2, or as a guest speaker at a local association or business.  Mark's focus is to help people with their investments and retirement plans. In Mark’s spare time he enjoys riding his dirt bike, playing with his kids, fishing, reading, writing, and going on walks with his best friend, his wife. To learn more about Mark please visit his personal website at www.TheEffectiveInvestor.com

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