A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE ECONOMY
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose 3.0 points for June to 85.2, exceeding the 84.0 consensus forecast of analysts polled by Briefing.com. Those analysts thought the University of Michigan’s final June consumer sentiment index would come in at 81.7; it climbed to 82.5 instead. In related news, the Commerce Department found personal spending up a decent 0.2% for May and up 3.7% in a year. As the Bureau of Economic Analysis downgraded Q1 GDP from -1.0% to -2.9% last week, all this was welcome. One more item of interest: the Federal Reserve’s PCE index showed yearly inflation at 1.8% in May, a 19-month peak.1,2
SO MUCH FOR THE SLUMP IN HOME SALES
Wall Street certainly liked the 4.9% rise in existing home sales for May noted by the National Association of Realtors. A day later, the Census Bureau announced an 18.6% jump in new home buying for May. Economists surveyed by Reuters had predicted May gains of 2.2% for resales and 1.6% for new home sales. April’s S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed a 1.1% overall monthly gain and a 10.8% overall annualized advance.3
DURABLE GOODS ORDERS LESSEN IN MAY
Minus transportation orders, they contracted 0.1%. With transportation orders factored in, the retreat was 1.0%. Analysts contacted by Briefing.com predicted gains of 0.4% in the headline and core indicators.1
STOCKS HAVE MIXED WEEK, GOLD RISES AGAIN
While the S&P lost 0.10% for the week and the Dow dipped 0.56 in five days, the Nasdaq rose 0.43%. This led the big three to the following Friday settlements: S&P, 1,960.96; Dow, 16,851.84; Nasdaq, 4,397.93. COMEX gold futures had their fourth straight winning week, gaining 0.4% to leave the precious metal at $1,320 an ounce at Friday’s close.4,5
THIS WEEK: The NAR announces May pending home sales Monday. Tuesday, the start of the third quarter brings ISM’s June manufacturing PMI, Commerce Department data on June auto sales, and earnings from Paychex. Fed chair Janet Yellen speaks about economic stability at an International Monetary Fund event Wednesday, and Wall Street will parse her comments in addition to Fed data on May factory orders, June’s Challenger and ADP job market reports and earnings from Constellation Brands. Thursday, the Labor Department releases its June employment report and new initial claims figures, and ISM puts out its June services PMI. Friday is July 4: all U.S. financial markets will be closed.
% CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG
DJIA +1.66 +12.16 +19.94 +6.27
NASDAQ +5.30 +29.28 +27.85 +11.77
S&P 500 +6.09 +21.56 +22.68 +7.30
REAL YIELD 6/27 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS 0.27% 0.50% 1.85% 2.23%
Sources: USATODAY.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 6/27/146,7,8,9
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.
These returns do not include dividends.
WEEKLY QUOTE
“It’s not the will to win that matters… everyone has that. It’s the will to prepare to win that matters.”
– Bear Bryant
WEEKLY TIP
During the first phase of your retirement, reevaluate your income withdrawal rate annually in consideration of changing needs and priorities.
WEEKLY RIDDLE
There are two of them, and one can usually see what the other sees, but they can never see each other. What are they?
Last week’s riddle:
Three playing cards lie face down on a table. A jack is to the left of a queen. To the left of a spade is a diamond. A king is left of a heart. A spade is right of a king. What are the three cards?
Last week’s answer:
King of diamonds, jack of hearts, queen of spades.
Citations.
1 – briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2014/06/23-27 [6/27/14]
2 – nasdaq.com/article/us-consumer-spending-rises-on-higher-inflation-20140626-00383 [6/26/14]
3 – investing.com/economic-calendar/ [6/27/14]
4 – thestreet.com/story/12759706/1/us-stocks-mixed-on-rate-hike-chatter-and-sparse-macro-news.html [6/27/14]
5 – tinyurl.com/o33cmg2 [6/27/14]
6 – usatoday.com/money/markets/overview/ [6/27/14]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F27%2F13&x=0&y=0 [6/27/14]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F27%2F13&x=0&y=0 [6/27/14]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F27%2F13&x=0&y=0 [6/27/14]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F26%2F09&x=0&y=0 [6/27/14]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F26%2F09&x=0&y=0 [6/27/14]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F26%2F09&x=0&y=0 [6/27/14]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F28%2F04&x=0&y=0 [6/27/14]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F28%2F04&x=0&y=0 [6/27/14]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F28%2F04&x=0&y=0 [6/27/14]
8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [6/27/14]
9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [6/27/14]
This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., for Mark Lund, The 401k Advisor, Investor Coach and author of The Effective Investor. Mark offers investment advisory services through Stonecreek Wealth Advisors, Inc. an independent, fee-only, Registered Investment Advisor firm providing 401k consulting for small businesses and private investment management services for professional athletes and select individuals. Stonecreek is located in Salt Lake City, Murray, West Jordan, Sandy, Draper, South Jordan, Provo, Orem, Lehi, Highland, Alpine, American Fork all in Utah.
