CONSUMER SENTIMENT HITS A 4-YEAR PEAK
May’s initial Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey came in with an index reading of 77.8, the highest mark since January 2008. The current economic conditions sub-index rose to 87.3 from last month’s final 82.9 reading. Descending oil and gas prices may have been factors promoting some optimism.1
BIGGEST DROP IN PPI In 6 MONTHS
Falling energy prices influenced this development as well. Producer prices retreated 0.2% in April according to the Labor Department. Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast no change. The bulk of the retreat was attributed to the 1.4% April drop in energy costs. The PPI has only risen 1.9% in the last 12 months, the smallest annualized wholesale price inflation recorded since October 2009.2,3
GOLD & OIL PRICES RETREAT
After anxieties emerged last week about a China slowdown, the broad commodities market took a hit. So at Friday’s close, gold had fallen 3.72% across five trading days to $1,584.00 per ounce while crude futures had slipped 2.40% to $96.13 a barrel. As of Friday evening, gold was +1.10% YTD and oil was -2.73% YTD.2
NEW DOUBTS IN THE EU AFFECT STOCKS
Eurozone elections brought new worries about whether Greece would abide by austerity cuts and stick with the euro. Efforts to form a coalition government in Greece stalled last week, and French president Nicolas Sarkozy was defeated in his reelection bid by socialist candidate Francois Hollande. Factor in the usual spring thoughts about whether stocks are ready to pull back, and the weekly losses were as follows: S&P 500, -1.15% to 1,353.39; DJIA, -1.67% to 12,820.60; NASDAQ, -0.76% to 2,933.82.2,4,8
THIS WEEK: Facebook’s IPO is scheduled for Friday, and there are plenty of other news items on tap. On Monday, Groupon comes out with Q1 results. Tuesday, the April CPI appears plus data on April retail sales and earnings from JCPenney, TJX, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Saks and Home Depot. Wednesday brings data on April housing starts and industrial output, the April 25 FOMC minutes, and Q1 results from Deere, Abercrombie & Fitch, Target, Staples and Limited Brands. The Conference Board’s April consumer confidence index and new initial claims figures are out Thursday, joined by Q1 earnings from Wal-Mart, Dollar Tree, Ross Stores, Gap, Aeropostale and Sears. As Facebook starts trading on Friday, a G8 summit also starts at Camp David; Q1 results also arrive from Ann, Inc. (formerly Ann Taylor).
% CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG
DJIA +4.94 +1.51 -0.76 +2.90
NASDAQ +12.62 +3.12 +2.90 +8.33
S&P 500 +7.62 +0.84 -2.02 +2.83
REAL YIELD 5/11 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS -0.28% 0.76% 2.30% 3.48%
Sources: money.msn.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov – 5/11/122,5,6,7 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.
WEEKLY QUOTE
“He who is not courageous enough to take risks will accomplish nothing in life.”
– Muhammad Ali
WEEKLY TIP
If you and your partner aren’t married, it might be prudent to create a domestic partnership agreement that states how expenses are shared, how assets are owned, and how those assets should be distributed in the event of your death(s) or the dissolution of the relationship.
WEEKLY RIDDLE
We know that a seahorse isn’t a horse, and we know that a silverfish isn’t a fish. For that matter, a snakehead isn’t a snake – but what is it?
Last week’s riddle:
About 90% of this country’s land area is made up of arid tan desert, yet its flag is solid green – in fact, at present it is the only nation in the world with a flag containing just one color. What nation is this?
Last week’s answer:
Libya.
Citations.
1 – www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-sentiment-in-may-at-post-recession-high-2012-05-11 [5/11/12]
2 – money.msn.com/market-news/post.aspx?post=eb995dbd-6940-465b-8bcb-3488ef1c2b7e [5/11/12]
3 – www.nytimes.com/2012/05/12/business/economy/us-wholesale-inflation-falls.html [5/12/12]
4 – montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=common-financial-mistakes-and-how-to-avoid-them&category=29 [5/11/12]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=5%2F11%2F11&x=0&y=0 [5/11/12]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=5%2F11%2F11&x=0&y=0 [5/11/12]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=5%2F11%2F11&x=0&y=0 [5/11/12]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=5%2F11%2F07&x=0&y=0 [5/11/12]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=5%2F11%2F07&x=0&y=0 [5/11/12]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=5%2F11%2F07&x=0&y=0 [5/11/12]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=5%2F10%2F02&x=0&y=0 [5/11/12]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=5%2F10%2F02&x=0&y=0 [5/11/12]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=5%2F10%2F02&x=0&y=0 [5/11/12]
6 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [5/11/12]
6 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [5/11/12]
7 – treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2002/ofm10902.pdf [1/9/02]
8 – www.sacbee.com/2012/05/10/4483985/as-europes-economic-outlook-darkens.html [5/11/12]
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