WHAT HELD UP HOMEBUYING LAST MONTH?
The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales fell 2.6% for March. A 1.3% drop in inventory for the month might have been a factor, and mild weather in January and February may have helped homes that would have sold in March sell earlier. Warmer January and February temperatures may have also skewed the numbers for housing starts: the Commerce Department said they slipped 5.8% in March. Now for some good news: building permits rose 4.5% last month to the best pace since September 2008, and Freddie Mac had interest rates on 30-year fixed rate home loans averaging just 3.90% last week.1,2
RETAIL SALES UP 0.8% IN MARCH
This follows a 1.0% gain in the category in February. Did gas prices account for much of the increase? No. Minus gas and car sales, the March gain was 0.7%, and core retail sales (minus autos, gas, and home supplies) rose 0.5% last month.3
LEADING INDICATORS BACK TO MID-2008 LEVELS
The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators reached 95.7 in March, getting closer to the 100 mark that would imply a healthy economy. The index rose 0.3% for the month with seven of ten indicators positive; interest rate spreads, building permits, stock gains and credit availability were the biggest influences.4
DOW BREAKS LOSING STREAK, GOLD PULLS BACK
Across April 16-20, the Dow gained 1.40% to 13,029.26 (its first weekly advance in three weeks), the NASDAQ lost 0.36% to 3,000.45 and the S&P 500 gained 0.60% to 1,378.53. Gold futures fell $17.00 (1.02%) on the week, settling Friday at $1,642.10; oil ended the week at $103.05 after a 0.21% gain across five trading days.5,6,7
THIS WEEK: Monday, ConocoPhillips, Hasbro, Xerox, DR Horton, Netflix and Texas Instruments announce Q1 results. Tuesday, earnings from Apple, Baidu, AT&T, 3M, US Steel, Amgen and Aflac are out plus the latest Case-Shiller home price index and data on March’s new home sales. On Wednesday, earnings reports roll in from Sprint, Boeing, Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, AutoNation, Delta, Credit Suisse, Motorola Solutions, GlaxoSmithKline and Akamai, March durable goods data is out, and the Fed makes a policy statement. Thursday, the NAR gives us its latest pending home sales report, new initial claims figures are in, and results from Barclays, Pulte, Amazon.com, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Chrysler, ExxonMobil, PepsiCo, Royal Dutch Shell, Starbucks and Zynga round out the day. Friday, Chevron, Procter &Gamble and Merck offer Q1 results, and the BEA’s first estimate of Q1 GDP appears plus the final April consumer sentiment survey out of the University of Michigan.
% CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG
DJIA +6.64 +4.62 +0.10 +2.70
NASDAQ +15.17 +7.06 +3.75 +6.70
S&P 500 +9.62 +3.62 -1.43 +2.25
REAL YIELD 4/20 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS -0.24% 0.82% 2.27% 3.48%
Sources: online.wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov – 4/20/125,8,9,10 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.
WEEKLY QUOTE
“The path to success is to take massive, determined action.”
– Tony Robbins
WEEKLY TIP
Take a look at your insurance policy and read the fine print about long-term or progressive illness. Make sure it covers you in case you or a loved one are one day diagnosed with Alzheimer’s Disease, Parkinson’s Disease or other forms of neurological disease.
WEEKLY RIDDLE
They have no bodies, but you could say they have tails and heads. What are they?
Last week’s riddle:
What is the beginning of sorrow and the end of sickness? Something you cannot express happiness without? Something that is always in risk, but never in danger?
Last week’s answer:
The letter S.
Citations.
1 – www.omaha.com/article/20120419/AP/120419584 [4/19/12]
2 – www.cnbc.com/id/47072035 [4/17/12]
3 – www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-04/D9U6251O0.htm [4/20/12]
4 – www.foxnews.com/us/2012/04/19/gauge-us-economy-rose-03-percent-in-march/ [4/19/12]
5 – blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/04/20/data-points-u-s-markets-93/ [4/20/12]
6 – montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=common-financial-mistakes-and-how-to-avoid-them&category=29 [4/20/12]
7 – blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/04/20/data-points-energy-metals-555/ [4/20/12]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=4%2F20%2F11&x=0&y=0 [4/20/12]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=4%2F20%2F11&x=0&y=0 [4/20/12]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=4%2F20%2F11&x=0&y=0 [4/20/12]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=4%2F20%2F07&x=0&y=0 [4/20/12]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=4%2F20%2F07&x=0&y=0 [4/20/12]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=4%2F20%2F07&x=0&y=0 [4/20/12]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=4%2F19%2F02&x=0&y=0 [4/20/12]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=4%2F19%2F02&x=0&y=0 [4/20/12]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=4%2F19%2F02&x=0&y=0 [4/20/12]
9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [4/20/12]
9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [4/20/12]
10 – treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2002/ofm10902.pdf [1/9/02]
This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., for Stonecreek Wealth Advisors, Inc. an independent fee only Registered Investment Advisor firm in Utah. Mark Lund is the author of The Effective Investor.
